By Charles Sosnik
Just over a century ago, Warren G. Harding campaigned for the presidency with the slogan “Return to Normalcy,” promising a restoration of calm after World War I, the Red Scare, and the Spanish influenza. Harding’s message appealed to a desire for stability and a simpler time:
“America’s present need is not heroics, but healing; not nostrums, but normalcy; not revolution, but restoration; not agitation, but adjustment; not surgery, but serenity; not the dramatic, but the dispassionate; not experiment, but equipoise; not submergence in internationality, but sustainment in triumphant nationality.”
More than 100 years later, “Return to Normalcy” has resurfaced as a refrain for life after the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet in education, reverting to the pre-pandemic status quo is unlikely. The pandemic accelerated remote work and online learning in ways that are durable — and many of those changes are now embedded in families’ expectations and school systems’ operations.
Even before COVID-19, roughly 27 percent of school-aged children were not enrolled in traditional public schools; more recent estimates place that number between 33 and 39 percent. With the rapid rise of homeschooling, direct-to-consumer EdTech, and alternative schooling formats, it’s possible that four out of ten students may soon opt out of conventional public education.
That shift isn’t necessarily negative. Nontraditional options can still be public education: magnet and charter schools, hybrid programs that combine home study with access to school athletics, maker spaces, or arts classes, and public curricula used in a homeschooling setting all fall within a broad definition of public education. The critical question is not which model is universally best, but which model best fits each student’s needs.
The pandemic demonstrated that many learners thrive in remote or blended formats, while others depend on classroom structure and community supports. Fortunately, schools are moving toward offering a wider spectrum of choices. More personalized pathways — ranging from full in-person instruction to hybrid and fully remote programs — will become standard options, and new models will emerge as technology and practice evolve.
Short-term funding for technology is not likely to be the bottleneck. Recent federal stimulus packages injected extraordinary funds into K–12 education, earmarked in large part for digital transition and technology infrastructure. The result has been record-breaking tech expenditure across the education sector, and much of those resources are still being allocated.
A related development has been the explosive growth of consumer-grade digital curriculum. Parents and caregivers spent an estimated $22.8 billion on digital learning products in recent years, outpacing school district purchases for many categories of curriculum and software. These consumer products often feature polished interfaces, engaging multimedia, and adaptive learning logic that keeps students on task.
Rather than compete with consumer EdTech on design alone, districts can leverage it: the same high-quality software available to consumers can be procured for schools and provided to students. This straightforward approach lets schools benefit from advanced user experience and instructional design without reinventing it in-house.
The pandemic also shattered many longstanding assumptions about procurement and practice in education. Long-established routines summarized by the acronym TTWWADI — “That’s the way we’ve always done it” — were suddenly less relevant. School leaders considered new vendors, adopted products more quickly, and moved sales cycles from many months to a matter of weeks. Remote demos, virtual installs, and rapid implementation became routine, expanding the range of possibilities for districts.
Several trends that accelerated in 2020 and 2021 are expected to continue:
A new teacher shortage is increasing demand for gig-economy and contract teachers — Districts across the country, including large urban systems, are struggling to staff classrooms. The supply of new teachers has been shrinking, and teacher retention challenges persist. In the near term, many districts will rely more on reputable staffing agencies and contract models that assume recruitment and hiring risk, allowing HR departments to focus on onboarding and retention rather than constant sourcing.
Students’ social and emotional wellbeing will be a top priority — For a second consecutive year, social-emotional learning (SEL) and student mental health have emerged as critical concerns for school leaders and teachers. The pandemic intensified stressors for learners and educators alike, prompting schools to ask what constitutes healthy emotional development and how to support it. Emotional intelligence — the ability to manage emotions and relationships — predicts long-term success and wellbeing, and schools will increasingly invest in programs, training, and resources to support students’ SEL.
Summative high-stakes testing will continue to give way to formative assessments — The disruption of standardized testing during the pandemic prompted a re-evaluation of assessment strategies. Expect a sustained shift toward formative assessment tools and software that track student progress in real time and show student work in progress, rather than relying solely on periodic high-stakes summative exams.
Homeschooling and direct-to-consumer EdTech will continue strong growth — The consumer market for digital curriculum has opened parents’ eyes to high-quality alternatives to PDF-driven, teacher-created lessons. With products emphasizing intuitive UI/UX and engaging content, many families are choosing homeschool or pod-based approaches. That straight-to-consumer market is growing faster than typical in-district technology spending and is expected to expand further.
Distance and hybrid learning will persist through the near term, despite widespread vaccination. Variants and changing public-health conditions make flexibility necessary, and schools will continue to offer robust remote and hybrid options.
Conferences and professional gatherings will rebound — Local and regional events have returned, and larger education conferences are expected to regain momentum as in-person participation resumes.
Whole-group instruction will remain common but will decline as a share of practice — Even as in-person classes continue, whole-class instruction is likely to shrink from current levels as schools embrace small-group learning and blended approaches that maximize individualized support.
Traditional public school enrollment will continue to fall — By the end of 2022, fewer than 65 percent of school-aged children in America are expected to attend traditional public schools, and that share is likely to fall another 3–7 percentage points over the decade as alternative models proliferate.
As we move forward, the notion of “normal” will change. Pre-pandemic norms may feel outdated; instead, education will be reshaped around the learner, with flexibility, varied learning modalities, and a broader set of choices defining the new normal. The future will be plural and student-centered rather than a simple return to the past.
It’s an exciting and unpredictable moment: educators, families, and policymakers will all test hypotheses about what works best. Until clearer patterns emerge, keep envisioning bold possibilities, take care of yourself, and remain passionate about the work.
About the author
Charles Sosnik is an education journalist and editor and serves as editor-in-chief at the Learning Counsel. An EP3 Education Fellow, he draws on deep roots in the education community to bring context to national conversations about schools. Charles contributes regularly to prominent education media and describes himself, with a wink toward his Southern upbringing, as an editor by trade and Southern by the Grace of God.