By Charles Sosnik
Schools are businesses that depend on the balance of supply and demand. To operate efficiently, districts need buildings to be used at or near capacity. So when roughly 40 percent of parents choose alternatives to traditional public schools, the implications are substantial.
At first glance the fix seems straightforward: move students from underfilled schools into those with space and close the empty facilities. But while the arithmetic is simple, the reality is complex and often fraught with difficult choices.
Over the past decade, many cities have closed schools in response to shifting populations, the rise of charter and private school options, and growing interest in homeschooling. Cities such as Chicago, Detroit and Philadelphia have been prominent examples, but closures are occurring nationwide. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated this trend by demonstrating to many families that alternative modes of schooling—especially homeschooling—can be practical and effective.
As a result, traditional public schools (TPS) are scrambling to retain students, and the numbers show a significant decline. Before the pandemic, about 73 percent of eligible students attended TPS; today that figure is closer to 60 percent—a drop that amounts to roughly 7.41 million students.
Enrollment shifts are dramatic in some large districts. Two decades ago LA Unified served 737,000 students; that number now sits near 430,000, and the district lost about 44,000 students during the pandemic period. New York City lost roughly 62,000 students over the same period, Chicago Public Schools about 25,000, and Salt Lake City Public Schools has experienced a 13 percent decline.
These declines force difficult decisions. Many districts are closing schools to rebalance resources and reduce operating costs. For example, Oakland recently voted to close seven schools after officials linked declining enrollment to a projected $90 million budget shortfall; the district estimates closures could save between $4 million and $14.7 million annually. St. Paul Public Schools in Minnesota reduced capacity by permanently closing two schools and temporarily closing four more after losing over 6 percent of enrollment this year. In Fairbanks, Alaska, the North Star Borough school board voted to close three elementary schools. New Orleans faces an enrollment crisis with nearly 20 percent of seats unfilled and plans to close four K–8 schools at the end of the year, with more closures likely. Baltimore City also approved the closure of three public schools next summer.
Although these shifts may appear disconnected, several core challenges are interrelated: student migration away from TPS, a growing teacher shortage, rising student stress and teacher overwhelm. While these problems might seem to call for different remedies, they actually share common solutions that leverage logistics and technology alongside renewed commitment to quality instruction.
Two major forces drive student migration. One is demographic change: urban centers that lost employment opportunities also lost families, leaving some neighborhood schools sparsely populated—a long-term trend that may require permanently closing some facilities. For the communities that remain, though, it’s critical to preserve high-quality neighborhood schools. With smart logistics and technology, teaching talent can be shared across schools so that geography no longer dictates access to excellent instruction.
The other driver is the perceived quality of the learning experience. Many families left TPS because their children could receive more personalized instruction, greater flexibility, or different social environments elsewhere. These are not insurmountable problems. Thoughtful deployment of technology, improved logistics, and a deliberate focus on rich social learning experiences can help traditional schools match or exceed the alternatives.
The teacher shortage combines several pressures. Baby boomers are retiring, fewer young professionals—especially women—are entering teacher preparation programs amid a broader landscape of career choices, and teachers are often overwhelmed by nonteaching duties exacerbated by underused technology and inefficient systems. The combined effect is an attrition problem that shortens careers and reduces available talent. Recruitment and reengagement strategies, including targeted outreach to prospective teachers from diverse backgrounds and retirees from related fields, can help. Equally important is redesigning how teachers’ time is used so they can focus on instruction while administrative tasks are automated or delegated to nonprofessional staff.
Student stress and diminished wellbeing have intensified since the pandemic. Returning children to well-run schools that prioritize individualized learning, meaningful social opportunities and mental health support can go a long way toward restoring their wellbeing. Again, better logistics and integrated technology allow districts to match services and staff to the needs of each learner.
Freeing teachers from burdensome noninstructional work is equally important. When technology handles routine tasks—lesson assembly, data tracking, scheduling—teachers can reclaim their primary role: teaching. That shift would let educators spend time engaging students, planning meaningful experiences and enjoying the daily rewards of their profession instead of spending excessive hours on preparation and paperwork.
Yes, there will be hard choices ahead. But school closures and consolidations need not be only losses. They can be catalysts for redesigning systems, reinvesting resources into fewer, stronger neighborhood schools, and creating exceptional centers of learning. With deliberate planning, modern logistics and technology, and a renewed commitment to supporting educators, districts can stem student migration and attract teachers back to the classroom. Teaching should be a joyful, fulfilling profession, and with the right tools and willpower we can build some of the best schools in our history.
About the author
Charles Sosnik is an education journalist and editor who serves as Editor in Chief at the Learning Counsel. An EP3 Education Fellow, he draws on deep roots in the education community to add context to the national education conversation. Charles is a frequent writer and columnist for several influential education outlets, including the Learning Counsel, EdNews Daily, EdTech Digest and edCircuit. Unabashedly Southern, he describes himself as an editor by trade and Southern by the grace of God.